NCAA Match by the percentages: Vegas picks and preview of Saturday’s video games

Steve Marcus

Gonzaga Bulldogs guard Julian Strawther (0) takes a 3 level shot through the second half of a Candy Sixteen NCAA Match basketball recreation at T-Cellular Enviornment Thursday, March 23, 2023.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, March 25, 2023 | 2 a.m.

The 2 finest video games of the event by the Candy 16 each cashed as profitable performs for me. Make that cashed as considerably fortunate profitable performs.

That doesn’t imply I don’t suppose I used to be on the appropriate facet with each Kansas State +1.5 and Gonzaga +1.5 within the final spherical. The Wildcats and Bulldogs led by seven and 10 respectively within the closing minutes of regulation earlier than the insanity reared its head.

Gonzaga was protecting even earlier than Julian Strawther’s “dream” heave that led it to a 79-76 victory over UCLA at T-Cellular Enviornment. And Kansas State had managed many of the recreation in opposition to Michigan State earlier than requiring additional time to prevail 98-93.

However it could be fallacious to not acknowledge that if one little factor went in a different way in both recreation, a profitable guess would have turned to a shedding guess. The margins are so slim in sports activities betting, particularly in an occasion as large because the NCAA Match the place the markets are extremely environment friendly.

I bemoaned the misfortune of Gonzaga’s non-cover in opposition to TCU within the spherical of 32, so it’s solely proper to level out some breaks falling the opposite far more just lately. These wins elevated me to a robust 10-6 file on performs by the NCAA Match, and a 29-29-2 file selecting each recreation (leans are 9-12-1 and guesses are 10-11).

Learn under for the handicaps on Saturday’s pair of Elite Eight video games. Picks are labeled in one among three units of confidence classes, and listed in tough order of confidence. Traces are one of the best at present out there in Las Vegas on the chosen facet.

No. 3 seed Gonzaga +2.5 vs. No. 4 seed Connecticut UConn has been one of the best group within the event, nevertheless it virtually feels just like the Huskies have been too excellent. They have been all the time going to dominate inside, however now, their photographs are falling at an unsustainable charge. Reference their surprisingly-mediocre ShotQuality grade for Thursday’s blowout victory over Arkansas for proof. They haven’t confronted an elite offense because the semifinals of the Massive East Convention Match when Marquette edged them 70-68 as 4-point underdogs. Gonzaga’s offense is a degree above that, and may on the very least make this a detailed recreation. And shut video games are the place UConn has struggled this yr as its late-game execution in high-leverage spots has left a lot to be desired. Quite a lot of instances, that’s randomness that evens out in the long term however there is perhaps some predictive worth in the case of the Huskies. It’s not comfy to choose in opposition to UConn with the best way it is rolling proper now, nevertheless it appears like some recency bias is at play to assist make the unfold this huge. Lean: Gonzaga +2.5.

No. 3 seed Kansas State -1.5 vs. No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic The Owls have been large throughout as 10-game profitable streak, and are completely gifted sufficient to be an Elite Eight group. They’re so much higher than most Cinderella mid-major groups of previous years to have made it this far. And but, can’t we admit they’ve had an exceptionally lucky path? Florida Atlantic survived by one level in a wild, coin-flip recreation in opposition to Memphis, rallied to beat No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson whereas failing to cowl by eight factors and unraveled a Tennessee facet that appeared, nicely, offensively vulnerable to unraveling. Kansas State’s run by Montana State, Kentucky and Michigan State has been much more spectacular. The Wildcats got here into the event as the higher group on paper, and so they’ve solely elevated the hole sense. Lean: Kansas State -1.5.

Case Keefer might be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Comply with Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer might be reached at 702-948-2790 or